AGA Super Bowl Betting Estimates: Legalization Is Growing The Market

Research conducted by the American Gaming Association (AGA) estimates that bettors will wager $6.8 billion on Super Bowl 54, between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. And despite legalized sports betting in 14 states and counting, the overwhelming majority of that money will be wagered illegally.

See also: BettingUSA.com’s 50-State Legal Super Bowl Betting Guide.

The survey, conducted by Morning Consult, found that “26 million, or more than one-in-ten American adults, will wager an estimated $6.8 billion on Super Bowl LIV,” three million more than last year.

“With 14 operational markets and another seven close behind, Americans have never before had so many opportunities to wager on the Super Bowl in a safe and legal manner, and clearly, they are getting in on the action,” said Bill Miller, president and CEO of the American Gaming Association. “With increased visitation to legal sportsbooks, we are successfully drawing bettors away from the predatory illegal market.”

H2 Provides A Slightly More Conservative Estimate

H2 Gambling Capital released its own, more conservative estimates on Tuesday. The firm expects $6.1 billion in wagers, and also provided a breakdown of legal and illegal betting.

According to H2:

“A record $760m is expected to be wagered through US licensed operators on Super Bowl LIV when the San Francisco 49ers take on the Kansas City Chiefs at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on Sunday, according to the leading gaming and betting data specialist H2 Gambling Capital (H2) and its US strategic partners Princeton Public Affairs Group (PPAG). Of this as much as 60% is expected to be taken online.

“… Just as encouragingly H2 and PPAG expect this to represent nearly 13% of the total amount bet on this year’s Super Bowl up from just over 6% in 2019. However, a total of $5.4bn is still expected to be placed with illegal operators, highlighting further the future potential for the continued development of the regulated sector as it gathers momentum across the nation.”

Inside the AGA Numbers

• More than one-in-ten American adults plan to bet on Super Bowl LIV.
• Of the 26 million Americans who will wager on the Super Bowl, close to 4 million will place a bet in person at a brick-and-mortar sportsbook, a 25 percent increase from last year.
• Nearly 5 million will place a bet through an online or mobile platform, either through a licensed, legal operator or an illegal offshore book, a 19 percent increase from last year.
• Millions more will wager with a bookie, in a pool or squares contest, or casually with family or friends.

The big takeaways from the topline numbers are:

• The spread of legal sports betting in the US is providing consumers with more options, as mobile and retail betting usage increased by 19% and 25% respectively.
• Legalization is growing the market and bringing in new sports bettors. Because the AGA numbers track legal and illegal betting, the increases in total participation, the amount of money wagered, mobile usage, and sportsbook visitation indicate legalization has grown the pie, not simply shifted customers from illegal to legal markets – although hopefully, that is happening too.

Estimates Help Tell a Story

2020 is the fifth year the AGA has released Super Bowl betting estimates. The impetus for the numbers was simple: paint a clear picture of the US sports betting opportunity. Now that PASPA is no more, the numbers are still important, as they demonstrate the economic benefits of sports betting in legal states, as well as the missed opportunity (the illegal numbers) in states that haven’t legalized sports betting.

AGA SuperBowl Estimates Through the Years:

• Super Bowl 50, Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers: $4.2 billion
• Super Bowl 51, New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons: $4.5 billion
• Super Bowl 52, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles: $4.7 billion
• Super Bowl 53, New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams: $6 billion
• Super Bowl 54, Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers: $6.8 billion

As the list above shows, the AGA estimates increased at a steady, modest rate from 2016-2018, before ballooning for the 2019 Super Bowl – the first post-PASPA repeal Super Bowl.