NFL Betting Strategies For Beginners: 12 Tips For Success

Very few bettors can resist the allure of the NFL, and fewer still can claim they’ve had much success.

There’s no denying that the NFL is a notoriously difficult sport to beat, and there are certainly no shortcuts on the path toward long-term success. However, by integrating just a few basic NFL betting strategies into their game plan, bettors can position themselves to make smarter wagers and slowly build their bankrolls.

As with anything, it’s important to learn how to walk before you run. This page seeks to accomplish just that, to help bettors build a solid foundation of skills that they can use as the basis of their NFL betting toolset. Here are 12 NFL betting tips to get you started.

1. Maximize New Player Bonuses

Every legal online sportsbook attracts new players through lucrative signup bonuses. Taking advantage of these is the single easiest way to boost your starting bankroll, so be sure to claim as many as possible.

Generally speaking, welcome bonuses come in one of three flavors: Second Chance Bets, Deposit Matches, and Bet & Gets. Bettors need to adopt a different approach for each bonus type if they hope to maximize their return.

Second Chance Bets

Although these are starting to wane in popularity, Second Chance Bets (formerly Risk-Free Bets) are still the most common bonus format. The premise is simple; bettors place their first wager and if it loses, they receive a refund in the form of bonus bets.

Typically, the refund is a dollar-for-dollar match against the initial wager, up to a certain amount. For instance, BetMGM Sportsbook will refund losing first wagers in full, but only up to $1,000.

It may seem counterintuitive, but bettors that receive these offers should purposely place their first bet at long odds. That’s not to say they should bet a random six-leg parlay at +5000, but find a reasonable longshot and bet it straight.

The reason for this approach is that longshots offer roughly the same expected value (EV) as heavy favorites, but are less likely to win. Thus, bettors increase their chances of winning a bonus bet without sacrificing value on their initial wager.

The same approach applies to the bonus bet. Since bonus wagers only return winnings and not the initial stake, bettors will want to use them to bet appealing underdogs.

To illustrate, if a bettor places a $100 bonus bet at -200 odds, they’ll win $50 about 65% of the time, for an expected return of $32.50. Normally the return would be $132.50, but remember the stake is not returned. If they instead place a wager at +200 odds, they’ll win $200 about 30-31% of the time, which works out to an expected return of at least $60.

Of course, this strategy is risky. Bettors can minimize their liability by betting on the other side at another sportsbook, but by hedging they’ll pay twice the vigorish.

Deposit Match

This one is simple. Sportsbooks sometimes offer a deposit match on a bettor’s first deposit, capped at a certain amount. For instance, DraftKings Sportsbook awards new bettors a 20% match up to $1,000, with the bonus awarded at a rate of $1 per $25 wagered.

With deposit matches, bettors simply want to make wagers with low house edges. Most deposit bonuses award roughly 4-10% cashback. In so long as the house edge is less than the cashback rate, bettors gain a temporary edge over the house.

For this reason, low-variance straight bets offered at the best lines (make sure to line shop) are the way to go.

Bet & Get Bonuses

This bonus format is arguably the most beginner friendly. It has a lower upside than the other two types but is easier to clear and less risky.

A Bet & Get tasks bettors with depositing and wagering a small amount, usually $5 – $20, after which they’ll receive $100 – $200 in bonus bets. Unlike Second Chance Bets, it doesn’t matter if the bettor wins or loses their initial stake.

Also, the bonus bets can be wagered however bettors desire. If they want to make 200 $1 bets, that’s up to them. Actually, that’s the basis of a good strategy, since it enables bettors to reduce their variance.

Secondly, bettors will want to use their bonus funds on underdogs. Again, this is because winning bonus bets don’t return the initial stake.

On a side note, bettors in eligible jurisdictions should always check if they can take advantage of an app’s sports and casino bonuses, should they offer both. Usually, it’s one or the other, but not always.

2. Learn To Identify Positive Expectation Promotions

Sports betting bonuses are almost always +EV, but recurrent promotions are more of a mixed bag. Learning to identify which promotions are worth the effort and how to maximize their value is a quick and effective way to regularly strip the book of its advantage.

Take Parlay Insurance for an example, which awards players a bonus bet if one leg of their parlay falls flat. Here are some questions you may want to ask yourself before diving in:

• Is the insurance paid out as a bonus bet or site credit? Site credit is better since the initial stake is returned.
• How big must the parlay be? Each leg of a parlay compounds the house edge, so the smaller the minimum requirement the better.
• Do regular parlays count or is the promo for Same Game Parlays only? Same Game Parlays have a higher house edge (usually) than regular parlays.
• What percentage of the initial wager is insured and what is the maximum insurance amount? There’s a big difference between parlay insurance that pays out 20% up to $10, versus one that pays 100% up to $50.

If you decide that the promotion is advantageous, then it’s a matter of knowing how to approach it. For Parlay Insurance promos that issue a 100% refund, the best line of action is to build a parlay of moderate-to-heavy favorites with one underdog. This way, bettors maximize their chances of claiming insurance, without sacrificing EV.

Odds boosts and profit boosts are other popular promotions. With odds boosts, bettors will certainly want to check if the boost is actually a good deal. All too often, a sportsbook will boost an exotic bet from +200 to +250, only for bettors to find that the wager is listed at +240 on another app. That’s not enough of an edge to warrant a bet.

Profit boosts are usually profitable when bettors can use them on low-margin wagers. If you have to use a 25% boost on a 6+ leg NFL parlay, then take a pass. However, if it’s on NFL moneylines or point spreads, then that’s enough to flip the house edge by a healthy margin.

To illustrate, a 25% profit boost on a +200 moneyline is effectively a bet at +250 odds. If the line is +200/-240 then the fair odds are around +212. Your implied odds are about 2.5% better than the no-vig line.

In short, a little homework goes a long way when it comes to tackling NFL promotions.

3. Choose A Profitable NFL Betting Angle And Stick With It

Most recreational bettors never get past their sportsbook’s main NFL page, gobbling up spreads and totals like turkey legs at Thanksgiving dinner. Then, they’ll parlay them together.

Don’t be this bettor. Online sportsbooks do an excellent job of showcasing popular bets that they want you to make. For the NFL, these are point spreads, Over/Unders, moneylines, and more recently the dreaded Same Game Parlay.

Although the house edge on these wagers (SGPs excluded) is low, they’re among the most efficient wagers in football. Even most professional gamblers will admit to not being able to beat spreads.

Instead, focus on more granular bets. Derivative markets like 2nd half spreads are less efficient than their full-game counterparts. Proposition bets are even better. Props are amenities offered by the sportsbook to draw in new bettors, and the biggest online books now offer hundreds of them for each NFL game.

They can’t be bet at high limits and the house edge is a bit higher than for main markets, but they’re still one of the most profitable NFL betting angles. Even simple line shopping can reveal inefficiencies in the prop market.

Expert Tip: If you’re betting props, don’t bet them exclusively at one sportsbook. That’s a surefire way to get limited. Spread your bets around, and bet on other profitable NFL markets. Throw in the occasional point spread for cover.

Going further, instead of betting on every single game, start by focusing on one team. If you brag to your friends about having never missed a New York Giants game, then the G-Men are a good starting point.

Now, instead of merely watching the games, find out who the best Giants beat writers are and follow them religiously. That list might include Art Stapleton or others who seem to be in the know about day-to-day developments. Once you’ve become an effective Giants handicapper, extend out to the entire NFC East, and hone in on divisional games.

Narrowing your focus and picking off low-hanging fruit is the best path toward sustainability. The hardest part might be resisting the urge to bet on whatever game is being televised.

4. Develop A Line Shopping Strategy

Most bettors are familiar with line shopping. In short, it’s merely comparing similar bets at different books, in search of the best possible odds.

In theory, line shopping is simple, but in practice, it can be jarring. This holds doubly for the NFL, due to the sheer number of available betting markets. It can be time-consuming and frustrating to flip back and forth between six different sports betting apps, holding numbers in your head, and getting in before the line shifts.

Here are a few NFL line shopping tips to get started:

• Line shop from a comfortable, familiar environment, like a home office. Do it from your desktop computer if possible, so it’s easy to view multiple sportsbooks at once.
• Use aggregate tools when possible. BettingUSA has an odds display for main NFL markets on its odds comparison page. It will enable NFL bettors to find the best spread, total, and moneyline odds with ease.
• If you’re line shopping from an app, store your logins in a password manager, so you don’t have to waste precious minutes signing in. If you’re in a safe place, temporarily turn off strong authentication.
• Learn which sportsbooks use the same sports betting providers. You can also learn which sportsbooks take positions on NFL games, and prioritize them.
• Set aside time to learn how each sportsbook lays out its NFL bets. This is especially important for props bettors, as books take different approaches to categorization. Also, try to get an idea of what props a sportsbook offers, and how they word them.

Speaking to the last point, it isn’t uncommon for one book to post a line on Patrick Mahomes to throw 400+ passing yards (Yes/No), and another to have a bet on Mahomes Total Yards O/U 417.5. These are vastly different bets despite targeting the same player.

5. Bet Early When Possible

Once you’ve become somewhat proficient at handicapping and identifying good lines, you’ll want to start betting them early.

Closing sports betting lines adhere to the Efficient Market Theory, which assumes that markets reflect all available information and are priced fairly. If an NFL line is fair, then there’s no way of beating it even before the juice is applied. Not all closing NFL lines are unbeatable, but point spreads, totals, and moneylines certainly are.

By betting early, bettors maximize their chances of generating closing line value (CLV). This concept is a measuring stick for most sharps, as it clearly indicates how much of an edge they’re getting over time. For instance, if sharps bet an NFL point spread on Monday at -6.5 and the line closes at -7.5, they’ve generated significant CLV.

If books list their point spreads and totals on Monday, bet them Monday. If props are posted on Thursday, don’t even wait until Friday to give action. Yes, they’ll be times when a key injury causes the line to move sharply against you, but that will work in your favor just as often.

In short, if you wait until the last minute to place your NFL bets, you’re wagering against a confident market that has been hammered into efficiency. This is exactly why sportsbooks don’t mind taking large NFL bets over the weekend, but wince at them early in the week.

6. Identity Wong Teasers, And Bet Them Late

There is one exception to the “betting early” philosophy, and that’s when Wong Teasers are available.

Named after famed blackjack player and sports bettor Stanford Wong, a Wong Teaser is when a 6-point teaser passes through certain key numbers, namely 3,6,7.

It works because teasers are typically listed at fixed odds. For example, a two-team 6-point teaser is typically listed at -120, regardless of the numbers it passes through.

Expert Tip: Teasers used to be offered at even money, but eventually, sportsbooks wisened up. If bettors can find them at -115, they’ve got themselves a bargain.

Historically, Wong Teasers win approximately 75-76% of the time. Given that the implied odds of a two-team 6-point teaser at -120 are 73.86%, they’re still marginally profitable wagers. The profits aren’t what they used to be, but smart bettors will use them to eke out small margins. More importantly, Wong Teasers are a quick way to boost your loyalty program status.

So when you see an underdog listed at +1.5, +2, or +2.5, or a favorite at -8.5, -8, or -7.5, toss them in a teaser. DraftKings Sportsbook and Caesars Sportsbook both offer -120 lines.

Expert Suggestion: If you insist on betting non-Wong Teasers, at least never bet a teaser across 0 (i.e. -3 to +3). Ties are so uncommon in the NFL that 0 is basically a dead number.

As mentioned, bettors will want to game day to play their Wong Teasers. This is because their value is generated from the fair line. Betting them early invites more variance, which is a serious sports bettor’s worst enemy.

7. Learn How Sportsbooks Calculate Alternative Bets

Somewhere along the way, bettors perpetuated a myth that buying and selling points is a negative expectation play. When in fact, alternative lines and totals offer far more value opportunities than the odds they’re derived from.

There are a couple of reasons why alternative bets can be profitable. The most obvious one is that books have a much easier time pricing one heavily bet line, than 50+ scarely bet alternatives. And that’s exactly how many alternate bets the biggest online sportsbooks now provide. For instance, if the Chiefs are listed at -6.5 favorites then bettors can bet them at +5.5 all the way to -21, in half-point increments excluding -0.5, 0, and +0.5.

The second reason is that sportsbooks appear to use different algorithms to determine alternative pricing. This results in a high degree of deviation from book to book, especially as the lines move further away from the origin point. The more sportsbooks that take positions, the better the opportunities for effective line shoppers.

Before betting alternatives, fish around to see how books value half-points at various origin points and totals. Jot down findings like “BetMGM increases the payout 15 cents from -9.5 to -10 when the origin line is -6.5 and the total is 54, but DraftKings only increases it 12 cents.”

This will take a fair bit of leg work, but will ultimately yield powerful results. If that’s too much work, tools do exist on sites like Unabated (paywall) that calculate the value of a half-point based on historical trends.

9. Create “Effective” NFL Futures

Line shopping is a useful tool for creating what’s called synthetic hold. This is when bettors take the best line offered on one side and compare it against the best line on the other.

For instance, if the Miami Dolphins are playing the Buffalo Bills and FanDuel Sportsbook has the moneyline at +140/-165 and BetMGM has it at +160/-185, bettors can create an effective line of +160/-165. This simple trick creates a synthetic hold of just 0.72%.

Bettors typically only apply this method to two-way markets, when they should be using it to create effective futures. The NFL futures market is volatile and online sportsbooks are known to take positions on certain teams. The problem is the house edge on futures runs high, especially when there are dozens of teams involved.

By creating effective futures on divisional winners, conference winners, and even the Super Bowl champion, bettors can often slash the vigorish in half. Now they’re betting into a highly uncertain market with only a moderate house edge.

As a recent example, BettingUSA compared AFC East divisional futures across just five sportsbooks. The vigorish at individual sportsbooks ranged from 8 – 10%, but the synthetic hold was just 6%, akin to the vigorish on alternative lines and in-play point spreads. If the comparison has been drawn out to 10 books, the synthetic hold would have likely dipped even further.

Sometimes, creating effective futures will offer other unforeseen insights. For example, it was discovered that for the 2023-24 NFL Season, BetMGM offers the best lines on Super Bowl futures across the board. The vigorish was 11.96% and the effective vigorish was also 11.96%. That’s rare.

What this tells bettors is that they don’t have to necessarily line shop for Super Bowl futures, just stick with BetMGM. We’d recommend that they still compare against other books once in a while, but it’s not as pertinent.

10. Bet Win Totals During The Season

The reason why Super Bowl futures are so heavily taxed is due to a combination of market uncertainty and high liability. This liability stems from favorites often being listed at greater than +600 odds, and dark horses coming in around +2000.

If sportsbooks don’t protect themselves, and a heavily bet team pulls off an upset at long odds, they’ll be on the hook for a bundle.

However, two-way futures markets are barely more volatile than point spreads and are priced accordingly. For instance, the vigorish on team win totals (over/under) is about the same as an NFL point spread, often less. It’s not uncommon to see lines like +150/-170 which have a hold of just 2.9%.

Expert Tip: Some sportsbooks now offer alternative win totals. The vigorish on these wagers tends to be higher, especially as they deviate further from the origin point.

Win total markets are not as uncertain as Super Bowl futures, but still way less efficient than spreads and totals. Throughout the season, savvy bettors will notice that sportsbooks take strong positions on these lines, to the point where arbitrage opportunities arise.

Bettors can arb win totals for guaranteed profit, but an arguably smarter approach is to just bet the best possible line. If players start doing this around mid-season, they won’t have to lock up their funds for too long, which is normally a downside of betting futures.

11. Reduce Variance When Possible (Ditch The Parlays)

Bettors don’t always have the time or motivation to improve their game, and that’s understandable.

However, they should still utilize one nearly effortless tip to reduce their annual losses by 2/3rds or more. Stop betting parlays.

Each leg of a parlay compounds the house edge. When betting a point spread straight at -110 odds, the hold is 4.54%. Parlay four of them together, and the odds are +1228. Given the fair odds of +1500, this works out to a juicy house edge of roughly 17%.

The other downside of betting parlays is their high variance. A 4-leg parlay consisting of point spreads will hit 1-in-16 times. Bet one per week, and there’s a strong chance that you’ll lose 100% of your wagers. A smart bettor would cringe at that level of volatility.

Parlays are particularly appealing to NFL bettors, because games aren’t played every day, and often run concurrently. Bettors feel like they have to get their quick fix because they’ll be a few dry days before the next opportunity. Resist the urge, and if you must play parlays, stick to two-leggers or round robins, which divide larger parlays into smaller ones. This will help reduce, but not eliminate, the house edge and variance.

The better advice is to only bet straights.

On a side note, bettors can also steady their bankrolls by making smart hedges. For instance, if you get a good price on a line, and the market reacts in your favor, you can bet the other side as long as you’re not giving up too much of your edge.

This strategy will almost certainly reduce your EV, but you’ll more reliably grow your bankroll, which is arguably more important long run. And don’t forget about middle opportunities.

12. Exploit NFL Betting Losing Streaks

Regardless of how sharp and risk-averse your wagers are, you’re going to experience losing streaks. Every gambler does. It’s unavoidable, and instead of going on tilt when it happens, mentally prepare yourself ahead of time.

Ironically, losing streaks unlock one of the best money-making angles in sports betting. To clarify, players that give sportsbooks a lot of action will likely be hosted, and can their host for kickbacks in the form of loss back rebates, bonus bets, or even physical items like iPads and luury gift baskets. Hosts are likely going to more responsive to player requests after they suffered a bad week than if they’re hot.

In addition, sometimes VIPs will automatically be awarded special promotions, that offer better value than public offers. These will be added to player accounts regardless of whether they’re winning or losing, but since many VIP promos are loss back offers, they’ll benefit you more when you’re running poorly.

Attaining VIP status at most online sportsbooks is fairly difficult although not impossible, especially if you’re already taking advantage of multiple betting angles. At the major sportsbooks, you’re looking at around $500,000 in annual handle or roughly $40,000 in monthly handle to become a VIP. Remember that you’ll be recycling the same money over and over again, so these figures aren’t as daunting as they sound.

Still, most recreational players will never be VIPs. That doesn’t mean they can’t collect.

After a losing streak, reach out to customer service to see if there’s something they can do. They’ll pass the request to management, and at least sometimes, you’ll get something. Or simply stop playing at a book after a bad loss. After about a week or two of inaction, you may find a special customized offer in your inbox.

Over time, variance will even out and +EV bettors will end up in the black. Exploiting losing streaks will only increase that EV.