Five US Sports Betting Predictions for 2022

sports betting predictions 2022

What does 2022 have in store for the US gambling industry?

It’s safe to say the last two years have changed how the world operates. And while it will be a mere footnote in the COVID-19 section of history books, the spread of sports betting and the normalization of online gambling in the US was something few expected to see.

A confluence of events led to this moment, but with sports betting legal or on its way to being legal in most of the country, the big question is, what happens next? And for the purposes of this column, what happens in 2022?

These are my five predictions for the year ahead. And for the record, here are last year’s 21 predictions.

#1: Everything, Including the Kitchen Sink

There’s a constant need to innovate in a competitive industry (and let’s be real, the current gambling landscape is hyper-competitive in most markets). There is a need to offer something your competitors don’t possess – and hopefully, something they can’t imitate.

Now that sports betting is firmly entrenched in the US, I fully expect to see a smorgasbord of different products rolled out.

The desire to differentiate will drive this wave of innovation. To name just a few of the likely products that will descend on US sports bettors, there are the many faces of esports, parlays, a possible mixing of DFS and sports betting, different types of in-play betting, and live-stream possibilities.

Will any of these products and ideas catch on? You never know. The post-UIGEA poker boom saw the advent of fast-fold poker, lottery Sit & Gos, and interesting tournament variants like PKOs, but most attempts at innovation fell flat, and few have had a lasting effect. So, I wouldn’t bet on a new sports betting product taking the world by storm. What I would bet on is a never-ending stream of press releases announcing the next big thing in sports betting in 2022.

#2: Talk of Federal Action

Let me set your mind at ease before you get too concerned that I have some inside information that the Wire Act debate is about to be rekindled. I firmly believe any hints of federal action that might occur would remove barriers, not install them, and attempt to nationalize the online gambling industry.

There is more political clout (and campaign donations) awaiting supporters of paving a more straightforward path to legal online gambling, as operators and the sports leagues are now on the same page regarding gambling. We’ve even seen some early signs of this type of clarification.

Whether that’s a long-overdue rewrite of the Wire Act for the internet age or new legislation that expressly deals with online gambling in some way, I can’t say. But my suspicion is the rumblings will begin at the federal level in 2022.

That doesn’t mean federal action will be a net positive for the industry, as any effort is likely to be bloated, with plenty of handouts to special interest groups and laden with head-scratching policies. As my friend Richard Schuetz is fond of saying, “beware a camel’s nose under the tent.”

#3: Marketing and Responsible Gambling Uncertainties

The toothpaste might be out of the tube, so there’s no fear that a state or states will undo what they’ve already done when it comes to legalization, but there is still a way for the sports betting brakes to get slammed and slow down the gravy train. That way is through responsible gambling and marketing restrictions, which I expect to begin in 2022.

I suspect this will be a slow process, but within five years, I can see European-level restrictions (advertising and RG policies like limits and means testing) across the country.

These actions would be devastating for operators that have spent copious amounts of money to set up US operations (including multi-million-dollar marketing deals with leagues and teams) under the assumption that the market was just getting off the ground, and these investments would pay off down the road. This leads nicely into prediction #4.

#4: Some Sports Betting Operators Will Throw in the Towel

The US is proving to be a costly market to operate in. Sure, there is room enough for many operators, but the sheer number of companies trying to be major players means many will fail, and failure here means absolute failure.

You can pencil in a quartet of operators as having established themselves as built for the long haul:

  • FanDuel
  • DraftKings
  • BetMGM
  • Caesars

Another group (a non-exhaustive representation is listed below) looks well-positioned but with an uncertain future. These operators could remain a part of the trail pack, elevate themselves into the upper tier, or possibly fail mightily:

  • Barstool
  • BetRivers
  • PointsBet
  • UniBet
  • WynnBet
  • Bally Bet

And then there are dozens of others who are fighting an uphill battle. Some will prevail, but many won’t. I suspect some will begin to see the writing on the wall by the end of 2022 and exit the US or sell off their assets while there is still a buyer.

#5: Regulators Under the Microscope

The US gambling industry is the ultimate misnomer. The country is a collection of 50 states, each with its own rules governing gambling and regulatory bodies that oversee the state’s gambling industry (and in tribal gambling states, each tribe has its own regulatory body).

That’s given us a hodgepodge of laws and regulations. The rapid spread of legal sports betting has also thrust regulatory agencies into existence and into areas of gambling they’re unfamiliar with. To put it bluntly, there aren’t enough qualified gambling regulators to match the current demand. What we have in many locales is political appointees trying to learn on the job, and that job is quite complicated.

If prediction #3 comes to pass, regulators will face a lot of scrutiny when they try to install new regulations, and as always, the threat of mishandling a scandal is always looming.

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