Mentions Prediction Markets

“Mentions” prediction markets allow you to trade real-money contracts on whether a politician, business leader, broadcast announcer, or other public official uses a specific word or phrase during a scheduled event.

Mentions markets can cover a massive range of topics, from finance and politics to sports and pop culture. For example, a mentions market may ask whether Apple’s CFO will say “headwinds” during the company’s upcoming earnings call.

Like all event contracts, mentions markets trade on a “Yes/No” basis with prices between $0.01 and $0.99. If your prediction is correct, your contract settles at $1.00.

Legal Mention Markets Apps

At their core, mention markets allow you to trade on public narratives, strategic messaging, and even corporate-speak. They provide a unique lens into what public figures, corporate executives, and media personalities are incentivized to say – or to avoid saying.

Note: For a complete guide on how event contracts, order books, and the general legality of prediction markets work, see our main US Prediction Markets primer.

Where to Bet on Speech Mentions Online

Numerous prediction exchanges offer political or economic markets, but only a few have the liquidity and regulatory approval to offer mentions markets.

Kalshi Mentions Markets

Kalshi is a US event-contract exchange regulated by the CFTC. Its “mentions” catalog focuses on high-stakes public speech, including FOMC press conferences (e.g., “Will ‘inflation’ be mentioned?”), presidential addresses, and corporate earnings calls from major companies like Tesla, Apple, and Nvidia.

Where Kalshi Excels: Unambiguous, iron-clad rulebooks. Kalshi ties its mentions markets to specific, verifiable official transcripts (not live broadcasts), and the rules often pre-define root words (e.g., specifying if “inflationary” counts for a market on “inflation”), which removes all guesswork.

What to Know: The only thing that matters is the final, published transcript as defined in the rules; what you hear live on TV is irrelevant if the transcript “cleans it up” or omits it. Liquidity is typically highest during the live event, so expect significant price volatility as the speech unfolds.

Read More: Kalshi Explained

Polymarket Mentions Markets

Polymarket’s mention markets are often fast-moving and viral, focusing on social media output (“Will Elon Musk tweet ‘Doge’ this week?”), celebrity-driven events, and broadcast-based questions.

Where Polymarket Excels: Speed to market and topic breadth. New markets on viral topics can be created in minutes. An oracle handles resolution (through a partnership with Chainlink), which allows for more subjective or consensus-based outcomes than a strict official transcript.

What to Know: Resolution can be more subjective than on Kalshi. As the platform rolls out its new US-compliant offering, users should pay close attention to which markets are available to them. Polymarket’s 24/7, crypto-native nature means prices can move rapidly in response to global news cycles.

Read More: Polymarket Explained

How Mentions Markets Work

A mentions market resolves based on whether a specific word or phrase is said within a clearly defined window.

You can buy or sell Yes/No contracts before and during the event. Prices float between $0.01 and $0.99 and reflect the market’s consensus probability that the phrase will qualify.

Contracts settle at $1 or $0:

• If the target phrase is mentioned, “Yes” contracts settle at $1, and “No” contracts settle at $0.
• If the target phrase is not mentioned, “Yes” contracts settle at $0, and “No” contracts settle at $1.

Every market has rules that specify the phrase(s) that count, who must say them, where they must appear (spoken audio, closed captions, official transcript, on-screen graphic), and the source of truth used to determine whether the word was said.

Important: Always read the rules before you trade. The rules matter in all prediction market categories, but they are paramount in “mentions” due to the inherent subjectivity of speech. For example, if the target word is “border,” does “borders” count? If the target word is “ICE,” does “ice water” count? You may be surprised at times – what counts or doesn’t count isn’t always intuitive.

Step-by-Step Mentions Prediction Market Example

Market Question: “Will ‘Artificial Intelligence’ be mentioned during Rocket Lab’s Q4 Earnings Call?”

The Rules: The market’s resolution source states: “This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the phrase ‘Artificial Intelligence’ appears in the official transcript of the Q4 earnings call, as published on Rocket Lab’s Investor Relations website within 24 hours of the call.”

Now, let’s consider two ways a trader could approach this market.

The “Yes” Trade (Speculating on the Narrative)

• Your Analysis: You’ve read analyst reports and believe Rocket Lab will emphasize its new AI-driven satellite guidance system to boost investor confidence.
• The Price: The “Yes” contract is trading at 60¢.
• Your Trade: You buy 100 “Yes” contracts for a total cost of $60.
• The Outcome: The CEO says, “Our new advancements in artificial intelligence are key to our 2026 strategy.” The phrase is in the official transcript.
• Your Payout: Your 100 contracts are now correct and settle at $1.00 each, paying you $100.
• Your Profit: $100 (Payout) – $60 (Cost) = $40 profit (minus fees).

The “No” Trade (Fading the Buzzword)

• Your Analysis: You think “AI” is just a buzzword. You believe the CEO will stick to hard engineering terms like “machine learning” or “autonomous systems” but will avoid the specific phrase “Artificial Intelligence.”
• The Price: The “No” contract is trading at 40¢ (the inverse of the 60¢ “Yes” price).
• Your Trade: You buy 100 “No” contracts for a total cost of $40.
• The Outcome: The CEO discusses “autonomous navigation” but never says the exact phrase “Artificial Intelligence.” The market resolves to “No.”
• Your Payout: Your 100 “No” contracts are correct and settle at $1.00 each, paying you $100.
• Your Profit: $100 (Payout) – $40 (Cost) = $60 profit (minus fees).

Types of Mentions Markets

You can find mentions markets in almost any category where public speech is tracked.

The Four Questions That Decide Most Mentions Markets

Use these four checks to read a mentions market in seconds. If you can answer these questions from the rules, you’ll know exactly what qualifies as a “mention,” who must say it, and which source will decide how the contract settles.

1) Exact phrase or concept?

Is the contract looking for the exact, letter-by-letter phrase, regardless of the context, or does the underlying concept matter? If the target phrase in a political speech is “ICE,” does “ice water” count?

2) Who must say it?

The principal (e.g., President, CEO)? Any announcer? The lead announcer? A sideline reporter? Audience members and callers usually don’t count unless explicitly included.

3) Where must it appear?

Spoken on-mic? On-screen graphic or chyron? Slides in an investor deck? Social posts? A prepared text that wasn’t read aloud? If the rules don’t explicitly include non-spoken mentions, assume they don’t count.

4) What’s the source of truth?

Only the resolution source named in the contract determines the outcome. Does the market resolve based on the live broadcast or an official transcript published later? If the named source differs from what you heard live, the named source still determines how the contract resolves.

Data Sources and Strategies for “Mentions” Trading

If you want to take a reasoned, intentional approach to trading in mentions prediction markets, remember: you are not guessing. Intelligent, profit-oriented mentions trading is a research-based skill that relies on concrete data.

Analyze Past Transcripts (The #1 Data Source)

This is the most important strategy. For any recurring event, like an FOMC call or a specific company’s earnings, always check the transcripts from the last few events.

Does the speaker always say “inflation”? If so, a “Yes” price of 90¢ is likely justified.

Did they often say “headwinds” in past statements but stopped last quarter? This is a strong indication that they believe the worst is over.

Does a CEO have a verbal “tic” or a favorite buzzword? This is tradable information.

Understand the Strategic Incentive

Ask why a speaker would (or wouldn’t) say a word.

Politics: Is a candidate trying to pivot away from an issue? They will actively avoid a word. Are they trying to force an issue? They will repeat it often.

Finance: CEOs use specific words to manage investor expectations. “Challenging” and “headwinds” are used to soften bad news. “AI,” “growth,” and “efficiency” are used to boost sentiment.

Follow the Dominant Media Narrative

Game announcers, awards show hosts, and even politicians often follow the path of least resistance: the main media storyline.

If the entire week’s sports talk is about a “bad beat” from the previous game, the chance of an announcer mentioning “bad beat” is much higher.

Know Where to Find Your Data

• Financial/Earnings Calls: The easiest way is to Google “[Company Name] Investor Relations” (e.g., “Rocket Lab Investor Relations”). All public companies post transcripts and call recordings there. For an easier-to-use experience, free apps like Quartr or sites like Seeking Alpha aggregate most of this data.
• Political / Fed Reserve: Go directly to the source. The Federal Reserve posts all transcripts, statements, and minutes on its official website here.
• Speeches: For major political speeches, sites like C-SPAN often have full transcripts available shortly after the event.

How Prices Move and Planning Your Exit

When a contract’s target phrase is believed to have been said, “Yes” often jumps quickly toward $1. That jump isn’t just nice to see. It changes the math.

Near $1, there are only a few cents of upside left, but you still carry the risk that the mention doesn’t qualify once the rules and the named source are applied. In plain English: the last few pennies are the hardest pennies to earn and the easiest pennies to lose.

Right after a mention, you’ll also see a brief burst of liquidity as buyers rush to lift anything between the current price and $1. A few seconds later, depth can thin, and the price may retrace while traders double-check the rules.

Your goal shouldn’t be to guess the exact top or blindly hold until settlement. Instead, you should aim to sell into that rush and lock in most of the win.

Think about it this way: Imagine you bought “Yes” at 40¢ and it spikes to 90¢. At that point, the most you can make by holding is 10¢ more. However, you could still lose 90¢ if the mention doesn’t qualify. Pre-planned exits turn that spike into realized profit, instead of a hope-and-hold gamble.

Here’s a simple plan that works for beginners:

• Plan your exits: Choose 2-4 profit targets (example: 70¢, 82¢, 92¢, 98¢) and place small, resting sell orders at each.
• Use the rules as your clock: Keep the named source handy. If the phrase lands, your resting orders can fill automatically as demand surges.
• Take something on the first spike: Even if you’re confident, sell part of your position immediately after you hear the qualifying phrase. If a rule disqualifies the mention, you’ve already mitigated the risk.
• Keep a small reserve: Hold 5–10% in case there’s a second push when the official source posts, but before the market settles.
• Don’t chase late: Buying Yes at 92¢ leaves pennies of upside and lots of downside if the ruling goes the other way.

Mentions Prediction Markets FAQ