How Donald Trump May Impact Online Betting Legalization Efforts

Trump Online Betting

Donald J. Trump will be sworn in as the 45th President of the United States on Friday, July 20th, 2017. With the wild ride that was the 2016 election cycle behind us, many have now turned to speculating to the future of a Donald Trump Presidency. Donald Trump said and promised many things on the campaign trail, so there is no shortage of speculation fodder.

Today, I am taking up the unenviable job of speculating where Donald Trump will come down on the issue of legal betting in the USA. As the recent election cycle demonstrated, Donald Trump has a knack for defying predictions. Nevertheless, I will do my best to speculate the potential ways in which President Trump may impact online gambling legalization efforts.

Will The Trump Presidency Take On Online Gambling Legalization

Much of today’s Presidential discussion revolves around other, more pressing issues such as the economy, terrorism, and trade. When we have issues such as a sustained terror threat from ISIS, a sluggish economy, and complicated relationships with other world leaders, online betting seems relatively insignificant by comparison.

Despite all that, the question of online gambling legalization could very well come up again at some point. It came up during the Bush administration (which resulted in the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act), it came up during the Obama administration (Justice Department’s revised interpretation of the Wire Act) and it just might come up again during the Trump administration.

There are two reasons in particular that I believe the issue is likely to be raised again during the Trump administration. First of all, a number of states have been looking into legalization themselves. Any progress on the state level will effectively force the Trump administration into a position, whether it is through action or inaction.

California has been working on legal online poker for several years now. If they make any progress on the state level, California may become the fourth state to legalize some form of online gaming. New Jersey has also been pushing very hard for legal US sports betting. New Jersey’s case currently only involves real-world betting, but that effort may end up before the Supreme Court, and Supreme Court decisions can have wide-ranging impacts.

The second reason I believe the issue could come up is because there are certain people in the United States who are determined to undo all progress made in current legalization efforts. Casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, for example, has long sought to influence Congress into passing legislation that would ban all online gambling across the nation. Some members of Congress are on board with that idea. If these groups continue to promote that agenda (which seems likely), well, there it is.

Where Does Trump Stand On Online Gambling?

Donald Trump seems open to online gambling on a personal level. If the worst-case scenario does materialize and he decides to support prohibition, it will not come as a result of any personal distaste of gambling. He has experience in the land-based casino industry and expressed support of legalization back in 2011 when he said:

“This has to happen because many other countries are doing it and like usual the U.S. is just missing out.”

Trump has also expressed explicit support of the 10th Amendment, which gives individual states the right to regulate themselves as they see fit. On the campaign trail, he would often refer difficult issues to the states. “Let the states decide,” he would say.

Normally, I would chalk this off as a typical politician’s easy way out from taking a position on divisive issues, but Trump’s own Presidential transition website has a section that mentions his support of the 10th Amendment. And besides, Trump isn’t exactly known for going out of his way to avoid taking controversial positions.

Spectator.org also makes a good case for Republicans falling in line, supporting the 10th Amendment and letting the states decide the issue on their own.

A recent report from Yahoo News offers more potential good news. According to Yahoo, a congressional committee is currently “in the process of reviewing the biggest federal gambling laws with the aim of drafting new legislation ‘that will also address daily fantasy sports and other forms of gaming.’ “

The three laws under consideration are the Federal Wire Act of 1961, PASPA and UIGEA. Changes to any of these federal betting laws could have major implications for online betting. There are many competing interests lined up on either side of the online betting issue, but those holding the review seem more interested in loosening the laws, not tightening them.

So far, so good. But let’s not get too optimistic quite yet.

First of all, Sheldon Adelson is a Republican megadonor and he still has the ears of influential Congressional Republicans. The Republicans also have majority control over everything right now. If Sheldon and his anti-gambling friends convince Congress to move against online betting, it would be up to Trump and maybe a few of the more libertarian-leaning Republicans to stop their efforts.

Would Trump be willing to spend the political capital required to defy his own party when there are so many other more pressing issues out there? The odds are Trump is going to have the entire Democratic party and most of the mainstream media already gunning after him. Blocking the Congressional Republicans would further isolate him – or at least eat through political capital that could be reserved for issues that are more important.

Knowing Trump, anything is possible, but I wouldn’t bet all my chips on that particular scenario playing out in our favor. It would be so much easier for him to just sign the legislation and get on with his day.

The other big concern is the people he is picking for his administration. Vice President-Elect Mike Pence is staunchly against online gambling. He even wrote a letter in 2014 urging members of the Indiana Congressional Delegation to stand against online gambling. On the other hand, Trump has shown no fear in disagreeing with his own VP in the past.

In the end, only time will tell how this all shakes out under a Trump Presidency. There are no guarantees either way, but the general trend over the last few years has been one of increasing acceptance of online gambling. A sudden lurch in the direction of increased prohibition would be surprising and upsetting to a great deal of Americans.

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