What Is a Scorigami in The NFL? Explanations, Origins, and Betting

NFL betting aficionados have come up with a lot of wacky statistics over the years, but perhaps none are more zany than the scorigami.

With origins dating back to 2016, the scorigami has rapidly become an obsession. Fans tune in every week to hopefully witness this rare phenomenon, which only occurs when two teams produce a final score that has never been seen.

When it hits, fans will flock to social media and proudly proclaim, “That’s Scorigami!”.

The rise of the scorigami hasn’t gone unnoticed by legal sports betting apps. In the run-up to Super Bowl 57, several books rolled out a scorigami prop bet, where bettors could wager on whether or not one would happen.

Among the hundreds of obscure Super Bowl props, the scorigami prop stood out, leading many to believe it won’t be the last time they’ll see it.

If you want to know more about the history of the scorigami, how it works, and the factors that increase its odds of occurring, read on.

Where to Bet on Scorigamis Online

What is a Scorigami?

The allure of a scorigami lies in both its simplicity and its rarity.

If two NFL teams face off, and the final score is unique, meaning that it’s never happened in the 100+ year history of professional football, then it’s a scorigami.

One might make the reasonable assumption that after more than 17,000 games, every plausible outcome must have occurred at least once. They’d be wrong.

In fact, despite multiple amendments to NFL rules and the continuous evolution of the game, there have only been 1,075 unique scoring combinations as of 2023. According to Pro Football Reference, there are still over 1,400 combinations left, and that’s just for permutations with a maximum team score of 70.

Some of those combinations, like 6-1 and 4-4, have longer odds of hitting than Powerball. However, enough viable combos remain that fans will usually witness at least a few scorigamis each season.

A simple tweak of the rules could send the number of scorigamis soaring, at least for a brief period.

Origins of the Scorigami Bet

The scorigami was conceived in December 2016 by SB Nation sportswriter Jon Bois. He debuted the metric as part of his Chart Party series on Youtube, in a video titled “Every NFL Score Ever”.

The concept was elevated to new heights by three-time Jeopardy champion Dave Mattingly. In September 2017, Mattingly created the NFL_Scorigami Twitter handle, which is dedicated to “tracking the chances that NFL games finish with a score that’s never happened before.” The account currently has over 375,000 followers.

Mattingly is also the mastermind behind NFLScorigami.com, having created the predictive data and algorithms for the site. On Twitter, he provides real-time odds of a scorigami occurring and pinpoints a game’s most likely scorigami.

Suffice it to say, Mattingly’s analytical genius would make him a sportsbook’s worst nightmare.

Since its inception, the scorigami has soared in popularity, with coverage from multiple major sports media companies and Internet personalities. Should US sportsbooks build regular prop or futures bets around it, the scorigami craze would likely accelerate to even greater heights.

The Famous Scorigami NFL Chart

The main feature of the NFL Scorigami website is the scorigami chart itself.

This graphic displays every scorigami ever recorded and has filters for several key metrics:

• The first year that a scorigami took place
• The latest year that a scorigami occurred
• The number of times each final score happened

Perhaps most importantly, it clearly displays in whitespace the final scores that have yet to occur. From the chart, users can see that there are still lots of scorigami opportunities where the winning team scores 32, 39, or 46 points.

Users can click into any green box, to read more details about that score’s history. As an example, it’s easy to see that the most common NFL score is 20-17, having occurred more than 280 times to date.

Is Scoriagmi Unique to the NFL?

Other sports have tried to hop on the scorigami bandwagon, with mixed results.

The NFL simply lends itself better to scorigamis than other sports, for a couple of reasons. First, it has a unique scoring system that makes certain scoring permutations much more prevalent than others.

For instance, scores like 14, 17, 21, 24, 28, and 31 are all incredibly common because they’re combinations of touchdowns + extra points + field goals.

However, getting to a score like 11 is unlikely because it would either take a touchdown + two-point conversation + field goal or something really odd like three field goals and a safety. Landing on 11 is more common than it was before the NFL implemented the two-point conversion rule in 1994 and pushed the extra point back in 2015, but it’s still rare.

It’s even rarer for the winning team to score 11 points. Yet, the beauty of the NFL is that it does occasionally happen. In a Week 18 game between the New York and Miami Dolphins in 2023, the score was 9-6 Miami heading into the final play. With possession, the Jets fell victim to fancy play syndrome which ended in a 25-yard loss and a fumble in their own end zone. Final score, Miami 11 Jets 6. It wasn’t a scorigami, but 11 – 9 would have been.

Other professional sports like MLB are low-scoring and runs are scored incrementally, making scorigamis exceedingly rare. The last MLB scorigami was in September 2020, when the Atlanta Braves crushed the Miami Marlins 29-9. It was the first MLB scorigami in 21 years.

Scorigamis are a bit more common in the NBA, but not much. A game would either have to be extremely low scoring (which really doesn’t happen in the modern NBA), a complete blow-out where the victor wins by 30+ points, or see both teams put up incredibly high scores to even pop up on the scorigami radar.

Because it uses a similar scoring system as the NFL, College Football feels like a good fit for scorigami, but there’s a problem. The NFL is just one league with a digestible number of games. In other words, scores are easy to track.

That’s not so much the case for College Football, where there are swarms of conferences and divisions. Some have tried to piece together the puzzle, but CFB scorigami really hasn’t caught on.

How Often Does a Scorigami Occur?

Before tackling the new and exciting world of scorigami wagering, bettors should first have an idea of their likelihood.

Listed below are statistics covering the past 30 years, dating back to just before the two-point conversion rule was implemented.

In the past 30 years, 241 games (3.05%) have resulted in a scoragami. During that time, nearly 7,900 NFL games (regular season and playoffs) have been played, a large enough sample size to make this statistic relevant.

However, breaking scorigami statistics down into 10-year chunks tells more of the story:

• 1993 – 2002: 103 scorigamis, 4.09%
• 2003 – 2012: 65 scorigamis, 2.43%
• 2013 – 2022: 73 scorigamis, 2.70%

We see that after the implementation of the two-point conversion rule, there was an explosion of scorigamis. In 1995, 1996, and 1998, nearly 6% of all games resulted in a unique score, as depicted in the chart below:

By the mid-2000s, a lot of scorigamis had been claimed, leading to a dry spell. There were anomalies, like in 2008 when there were 11 scorigamis, and again in 2013 when there were a staggering 14, but in most other years from 2005 – 2014 there were rarely more than seven.

A 2015 rule change that pushed the line of scrimmage for extra point attempts to the 15-yard line didn’t change much. From 2015-22 only 2.62% games have ended in scorigami, compared to 2.49% in the previous eight years.

There are a couple of reasons why this ruling didn’t have the same impact as the two-point conversion. For one, kickers still weren’t missing that many extra points. In 2022, nearly 95% of all extra point attempts were successful.

More importantly, a missed extra point doesn’t have the same impact as a converted two-point attempt. Instead of scoring seven points, the team is awarded six points, which is the equivalent of two field goals. On the other hand, a touchdown + two-point conversion yields eight points, which can lead to some really wacky outcomes.

NFL coaches are finally starting to embrace advanced data analytics, which encourages teams to go for more two-point conversions. Whether this will lead to a mini-surge in scorigamis is yet to be seen.

What is known is that each time a scorigami is taken off the board, the odds of one occurring grow slightly longer.

Has There Ever Been a Super Bowl Scorigami?

Out of all Super Bowls, three have resulted in a scorigami, the most recent during the 2013-14 season. That works out to an impressive 5.26%, but the small sample size renders this statistic mostly irrelevant.

On February 2, 2014, Super Bowl 48 saw the Seattle Seahawks crushing the Denver Broncos 43-8. It was also the first time that a Super Bowl was played in a “cold weather” stadium, even though the kickoff temperature of 49 degrees was only the third-coldest on record.

Interestingly, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll is famous for leading his team to scorigamis, having achieved the milestone exactly once each year from 2010 – 2018.

Can You Bet On A Scorigami?

In 2022, the scorigami showed up as a futures bet on a few international sportsbooks. Bettors could wager on the exact number of scorigamis. There were three unique scores in the 2022-23 season, which paid out at roughly +450 American odds.

It wasn’t until Super Bowl 57 that the scorigami made its presence known at US sportsbooks. Several books allowed bettors to wager on whether a scorigami would happen, at the following odds:

• DraftKings Sportsbook: +2000 (-10000 for No)
• FanDuel Sportsbook: +1800
• Caesars Sportsbook: +1600

At +2000, the implied odds are 4.76%. Despite the Chiefs and the Eagles both being prolific offensive teams, this is a poor wager. The “No” side at -10000 (99.01% implied probability) was even worse.

The final score ended up 38-35 Kansas City, a score that has been recorded 24 times before. Had the Chiefs scored another TD and botched the point after or two-point attempt, the score would have been 44-35, a scorigami.

Due to the surging popularity of scorigamis, it’s likely that bettors will see more wagers centered around unique NFL scores, which could include Yes/No props for regular season and playoff games, and possibly a season-long future where bettors predict the exact number of scorigamis.

Scorigami Betting Strategies

Since scorigamis are a fresh concept, the lines might be soft. Just as likely, US online sportsbooks will overcompensate for their lack of data by juicing up the lines into oblivion.

As always, bettors are strongly advised to shop around for the best line. During Super Bowl 57, scorigami lines varied widely. Bettors with multiple sportsbook apps can rest assured knowing they’re getting a fairer shake.

Beyond that, there are a few known considerations when betting on scorigami props:

• If one or ideally both teams are offensive juggernauts, the odds of a scorigami rise. There are many scorigami opportunities open to teams capable of scoring 46 or more points.
• Teams that go for two-point conversions are more likely to hit key scorigami numbers like 32, 39, 43, and 46. This is especially true if the team has a high make rate.
• Likewise, defensively outmatched teams have a stronger likelihood of landing on wide open numbers like 8, 11, and 12.
• Pay attention to field conditions. One missed extra-point attempt due to bad weather doesn’t skew the result toward a scorigami, but two or three can.

Even under the best conditions, it would be hard to justify betting that a scorigami will happen at less than +3000 odds. The better opportunity might be in betting scorigami futures, where odds could vary widely from book to book, and in some cases may be way off.

Scorigami Betting FAQ