21 Gambling Industry Predictions For 2021

This post lays out the team at Betting USA’s 21 best predictions for the gambling world in 2021. Each prediction was revisited at the end of 2021 to see what we got right, and what we got wrong. For more, see BettingUSA’s updated collection of sports betting predictions for 2022.

The following predictions are divided into sets of seven, the first focuses on US sports betting, while the second and third sections focus on other sectors of the US gambling industry.

As we prepare to turn the page on 2020, the Betting USA team put on their forecasting hats to come up with 21 gambling industry predictions for 2021.

Each prediction is designated as a high, medium, or low confidence.

• High confidence predictions are highly likely to happen.
• Medium confidence predictions are more likely than not to happen.
• Low confidence predictions are the Betting USA team throwing darts and thinking up some potential scenarios that could occur.

Here are our first seven predictions, all dealing with the popular topic of US sports betting.

Prediction #1: The Industry Will Deal With a (Minor?) Scandal

Since the Supreme Court overturned PASPA in May 2018, US Sports betting has dealt with a few hiccups. These range from a well-publicized palp error in New Jersey to a supplier kerfuffle that forced the West Virginia industry offline for a spell to some murmurs of match-fixing in table tennis.

What it hasn’t dealt with is a real scandal.

But it’s only a matter of time before the US sports betting industry does face a scandal, and big or small, it will get plenty of attention, considering the microscope the sector is under.

Since it’s a matter of when, not if, how the industry deals with it will be far more critical than what exactly happens. Unlike the hiccups mentioned above, if the industry wants to avoid serious pushback, the proper approach is transparency and alacrity.

This prediction is low confidence.

Result: It didn’t take long for a minor scandal to emerge, as the Tennessee Lottery had the misfortune of dealing with allegations that one of its operators, Action247, was using sports betting winnings from players to pay their loans (the company’s primary business is payday loans). The scandal quickly blew over, but it could be a harbinger for 2022, as more and more states try to regulate a very complex industry.

Prediction #2: A New Challenger Will Emerge

Thus far, US sports betting has been a two-horse race between DraftKings and FanDuel. However, there are signs that their exclusive reign at the top could be coming to an end.

There are existing challengers in BetRivers, BetMGM, and Caesars. And new entries from the resurrected Bally’s to Barstool believe they have what it takes to shake up the market in 2021.

Basically, there are many legitimate challengers for the throne, and who will emerge (if anyone) will be a mixture of strategy, opportunity, and luck.

This prediction is medium confidence.

Result: Welcome to the party BetMGM. As 2021 progressed, it became very clear that DraftKings and FanDuel have a very tough competitor in BetMGM. Further, many of the other above-named entrants are still lurking in the trail pack.

Prediction #3: New York Takes the Mobile Sports Betting Plunge

2021 is the year New York gets its act together and legalizes mobile sports betting. Well, maybe.

Everything is lining up for the Empire State, with the governor even mentioning sports betting when asked about plugging the state’s massive budget hole. But this is New York, and if the online poker efforts of the early twenty-teens taught us anything, it’s that the state has about two dozen friction points.

Still, with neighboring New Jersey reaping the rewards of New Yorker’s sports betting appetite and COVID-19 blasting an Empire State Building sized hole in the budget, lawmakers may not have a choice but to support the measure.

This prediction is medium confidence.

Result: New York managed to pass mobile sports betting legislation in 2021, but it wasn’t easy. The outcome was in doubt until the very end, and the legislation is far from perfect, but sometime in early 2022, New Yorkers will have the capability of mobile betting.

Prediction #4: Three New England States Join the Sports Betting Party

A near New England sweep is looking more and more likely in 2021. Rhode Island and New Hampshire are already sports betting states, and Massachusetts and Connecticut are among the most likely states to get legislation passed. That leaves Maine and Vermont.

Maine nearly passed sports betting legislation in 2020 and is likely to revisit it in 2021.

Vermont is Vermont, and the notoriously anti-gambling state could be the only non-sports betting state in the region when the calendar flips to 2022.

This prediction is high confidence for two of the three to pass legislation and medium confidence for all three to pass legislation.

Result: One out of three New England states managed to legalize sports betting, as Massachusetts kicked the can into 2022 and Maine’s efforts stalled out near the finish line for the second consecutive year. Connecticut was the lone addition, as the state legalized a smorgasbord of online gambling.

Prediction #5: Sports betting legalization stalls elsewhere

There are a few other sports betting candidates lurking (Missouri, Georgia, and Ohio), but at the end of the day, if a state hasn’t passed a bill at this point, it’s safe to assume there are serious impediments. As was the case with DFS, a big first wave of states jumped at the opportunity, followed by what looks like a slow trickle of states in the ensuing years.

We expect states to start upping their demands for sports betting as states like Pennsylvania are reaping the rewards, while industry-friendly states like Colorado are struggling to collect $1 million in taxes every month.

This prediction is medium confidence.

Result: Ohio legalized sports betting at the eleventh hour, but the other states listed above are still sitting on the sidelines. No real surprises there.

Prediction #6: The M&As Slow Down

The US sports betting opportunity led to a spate of mergers and acquisitions. We’ve seen companies looking to build on or cement their current place in the US sports betting hierarchy or position themselves for entry into the burgeoning space. Thus far, there has been no shortage of buyers, sellers, or companies looking to combine their operations with other big-name players.

We believe that trend will stall in 2021 for the following reasons:

• The industry is running out of potential targets.
• The benefits of these acquisitions and mergers have yet to be realized.

There is one exception, as many of the tie-ups have created redundant products that are likely to be spun off.

This prediction is low confidence.

Result: It’s a good thing we said low confidence! The M&As didn’t slow down at all, in fact, they picked up steam, and there is zero signs of a slowdown.

Prediction #7: BetCris closes in on US license

One of the more controversial news themes in 2020 was the inroads offshore books appear to be making towards receiving US sports betting licenses.

There was the direct acknowledgment of these efforts by 5Dimes, and the growing partnerships between offshore sportsbooks and US professional sports leagues.

All of these developments are pointing towards offshore books deftly positioning themselves for US licenses. And with the US market comprised of dozens of individual markets, offshores will have several possible entry points, and to get the ball rolling, they’ll only need to convince one state.

We don’t expect a license to be granted in 2021, but we believe there will be discussions.

This prediction is medium confidence.

Result: This was a big story in 2020, but it decided to stay there, as there was nary of peep of offshores trying to enter the legal US market in 2021.

For our next 7 predictions, we shift to the other forms of US online gambling: casino, poker, and lottery.

Prediction #8: Lotteries Embrace Online Offerings

Online lotteries produced strong results for states pre-pandemic (without cannibalizing retail lottery revenue), and COVID-19 certainly cemented their value. US states with online lotteries were able to keep revenue flowing during stay-at-home orders and ongoing consumer unease. In contrast, non-online lottery states saw revenue fall off a cliff.

Several states did what they could to get online lottery products up and running during the pandemic, and we expect that trend to continue in 2021. States are not only looking for revenue wherever they can find it, but they’re also aware of the need to protect against the possibility of future pandemics.

Any lottery that can jump into online products without legislative approval will almost certainly go down that road. And we anticipate several legislative pushes from lotteries where legislation is required.

This prediction is high confidence.

Result: Lotteries continued to embrace the internet in 2021. And as we expected, where possible, they did so without legislative approval. Massachusetts started an online ticket redemption program, Illinois added instant win games, along with many other developments.  

Prediction #9: There’s no Second Poker Boom Coming

Online poker saw an uptick in popularity during 2020. Still, that new/renewed interest was primarily due to cardroom closures and the ongoing restrictions that have kept poker rooms closed or at limited capacity in markets where casinos have reopened.

Even if progress is made in some locales, online poker won’t be widely available in the US anytime soon. That is why we believe the online poker numbers during the pandemic are a mirage. When the pandemic subsides and brick & mortar poker options return in earnest, the online numbers will return to their previous levels.

This prediction is high confidence.

Result: Online poker participation has fallen back to earth after seeing numbers skyrocket during pandemic lockdowns, and any interest in poker spurred on by COVID lockdowns seems to have subsided.  

Prediction #10: Legal Online Gambling Continues to Lag Sports Betting

In an earlier prediction, we posited a slowdown in sports betting legalization, and unfortunately, we don’t see legislatures shifting to online casino and poker. That lag will continue, although we do expect some progress in 2021. There will be plenty of bills filed, some hearings, and perhaps votes, but these efforts becoming law will be few and far between.

Online casino and poker could easily get tacked on to bills in places like Connecticut. States that recently legalized sports betting, like Indiana, have expressed some interest in online expansion. Regardless, we estimate that by the end of 2021, legal sports betting will be available in roughly 30 states. Online casino and poker will still be in the single digits.

This prediction is medium confidence.

Result: Online poker and online casino continues to lag sports betting as only one state added its name to the legal list in 2021, the aforementioned Connecticut. The situation is really bleak for poker, as two states that have legalized these activities (West Virginia and Connecticut) and launched their online casinos are reticent to launch poker industries.

Prediction #11: Online Gambling Revenues Fall Back to Earth

As if online gambling needed any more bad news, we also believe that by the second half of 2021, the bawdy online casino numbers Pennsylvania and New Jersey are posting will subside. In fact, H2 2021 could bring about the first year-over-year revenue declines in the history of New Jersey online casinos.

The pandemic certainly saw online revenues rise. Even with casinos partially reopening, the growth has been sticky, but that can’t last forever, and casinos will eventually reopen on a full-time basis.

A secondary factor to consider is the ongoing toll the pandemic has on the overall economy. Consumer spending habits have changed, and companies have become accustomed to operating with smaller, remote teams.  Because of these factors, many pre-pandemic jobs may no longer exist.

This prediction is medium confidence.

Result: A big swing and a miss on this one. Online gambling revenue is proving much stickier than we imagined.

Prediction #12: The Wire Act Case Withers and Dies

Sheldon Adelson’s efforts to halt or, if at all possible, prohibit online gambling in the US is already on their last leg. The incoming Biden administration is unlikely to follow through on the Trump administration’s defense of its 2018 Wire Act opinion. As such, this could be the end of organized resistance to online gambling.

With every state that legalizes online gambling (be it casino, poker, sports betting, or lottery), prohibitions lose steam. When it was a trio of states offering online casino products, these prohibition efforts were a severe threat. With half the states in the country offering online betting, it’s shifted to a nuisance.

This prediction is high confidence.

Result: The case is over, as the Biden administration decided not to continue the appeal, but there is always the possibility of a future administration resurrecting it.

Prediction #13: Pennsylvania Overtakes New Jersey as the iGaming Leader

New Jersey’s time in the sun as the online casino leader in the US market could be coming to an end. Its neighbor, Pennsylvania, has a larger population and has established itself as a robust online casino market during the pandemic.

The pandemic certainly accelerated Pennsylvania’s online casino maturation, and by the end of 2021, we expect Pennsylvania to eclipse New Jersey in monthly online casino revenue.  

This prediction is medium confidence.

Result: Another swing and a miss, as New Jersey is still the leader in the clubhouse (and by a substantial margin). Still, it will be interesting to see how things shake out once New York mobile sports betting goes live.

Prediction #14: Michigan and Pennsylvania Ok Interstate Online Poker

Interstate online poker is a thing in the US, but efforts stalled out after the aforementioned Wire Act opinion issued in 2018. But things could get back on track by the second half of 2021. Pennsylvania has long hinted it wants to team up with New Jersey, Nevada, and Delaware. Legislation in Michigan expressly authorized regulators to enter into interstate online poker agreements with other states.

With the Wire Act case likely to fall by the wayside in 2021, Betting USA believes both states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, will enter into an interstate agreement with the other online poker states. That said, we don’t expect either state to start pooling players until 2022, as the decision will likely have to wait until the Wire Act case is resolved.

This prediction is medium confidence.

Result: A trend is forming whenever poker is mentioned in this column, and that trend is disinterest. The expected agreement never came to pass in 2021, but it is a development that could be announced at any point in time.  

In our final 7 predictions, we cover everything else, from land-based casinos to emerging verticals to responsible gambling.

Prediction #15: COVID Impact Lingers for the Casino Industry

The approval of vaccines is a hopeful sign that the COVID-19 pandemic is coming to an end. However, the early rollout and the significant percentage of the population that is hesitant to take one of the available vaccines lead us to believe that the pandemic won’t come to an abrupt halt.

That’s bad news for industries, like the US casino industry, hoping for a return to normal. Until the pandemic is entirely under control, capacity restrictions, closed venues, and consumer concerns will be a heavy burden for the casino industry.

That will likely mean trouble for some of the already struggling regional casinos in competitive markets. Still, the real impact will be on the destination resorts, as they rely on national and international travel.

This prediction is high confidence.

Result: The US casino industry has been indelibly changed, but revenues are through the roof since casinos reopened. The big question is, can this boom last considering visitation appears to be down?

Prediction #16a: Esports Catches On

Esports is extremely popular around the globe. Esports betting is also popular in some parts of the world. However, esports betting hasn’t caught on in the US, not even during the pandemic when virtually every sports league was shutdown.

That said, there are some signs that esports is making inroads in the US. Despite being restricted in many locales, bettors got a taste of esports betting during the pandemic. That interest will only increase going forward as more states legalize sports betting, and existing states loosen restrictions on esports betting.

Another factor to consider is the efforts by GameCo, including its first dedicated esports sportsbook in Colorado.

This prediction is low confidence.

Result: Another low confidence prediction that missed the mark. Yes, there were some signs of increased interest in esports, but the activity (at least in terms of betting) is still extremely niche.

Prediction #16b: Pushback Against Marketing Begins

Earlier this year, we warned of sports betting advertising fatigue. So far, the pushback has been mild, but warning signs are pointing to a day of reckoning on the horizon. The UK and Europe situation hasn’t lost steam, and the US industry hasn’t made the necessary adjustments to stave off a similar push for government regulation.

This prediction is low confidence.

Result: The pushback certainly began in 2021, as it continues to be brought up more and more frequently. We fully expect this issue to continue to pick up speed in 2022.

Prediction #17: Responsible gaming starts to look responsible

Responsible gaming is still an afterthought in legislation, and as mentioned in the preceding prediction, the industry isn’t where it needs to be on the responsible gaming issue. But as Bob Dylan sang, the times they are a changin’.

Responsible gaming is gaining momentum as a topic of interest from NGOs like the National Council on Problem Gambling, companies like EPIC Risk Management, and even from affiliates, who tend to drive conversation topics.

The big question is whether the industry can get out in front of any pushback before the government embarks on UK-like crackdowns on advertising, marketing, and VIP promotions.

This prediction is high confidence.

Result: For the first time I can truly say that responsible gambling was given more than lip service from the industry. It’s a hot topic of conversation, and more importantly, we’re starting to see some money and action devoted to it. From the NFL’s partnership with the NCPG to operators funding responsible gambling programs to the AGA’s Have a Game Plan campaign, 2021 was a good year on the responsible gambling front.

Prediction #18: A Horse Racing Renaissance

Like casinos, the horse racing industry was hard-hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, with track closures followed by attendance prohibitions and limits. And unlike the casino industry, horse racing was already struggling. But COVID wasn’t a death knell for horseracing, far from it.

The racing industry quickly reacted and was one of the first forms of land-based gambling (and sports) to restart following the spring shutdowns. That’s a good sign for the industry moving forward.

Another good sign is the spread of legal sports betting. Horse racing and sports betting have a lot of overlap, and with several states allowing sports betting at racing venues, we believe the industry will get a shot in the arm, with new visitors coming for the sports betting and staying for the racing.

This prediction is medium confidence.

Result: Horse racing may not be in the midst of a renaissance, but it’s not in a state of perpetual decline either. There were several developments on this front in 2021, including some interesting partnerships and horse racing app launches, and New Jersey’s fixed odds betting legislation.

Prediction #19: Poker Rooms Stay Closed

Even before COVID-19, Poker rooms were rapidly disappearing from casino floors, and it looks like the pandemic will spell the end for many more. Poker isn’t conducive to social distancing, nor are poker rooms big moneymakers for casinos. So it’s not surprising to learn that several poker rooms, including the fabled Mirage, are already being converted for other uses.

That isn’t all bad news for poker players. The consolidation will certainly improve games. Additionally, the rooms that soldier ahead with poker will benefit from the lack of competition, making it easier for these casinos to invest in their poker rooms.

This prediction is high confidence.

Result: Again, poker is becoming an also-ran product, much like it was in the 80s and 90s, and casinos will have hard decisions to make when it comes to poker.

Prediction #20: Cashless Gaming Is Here to Stay

As Betting USA has reported, the pandemic has ushered in the era of cashless gaming. Cashless gaming is long overdue, as it helps with security, player tracking (for AML and responsible gaming purposes), and is a more user-friendly way to gamble.

Now that it has arrived, we have little doubt it will quickly spread across the industry.

This prediction is high confidence.

Result: Cashless gaming is here to stay. The number of advancements on this front in 2021 was staggering. Resorts World went full cashless, and regulators are trying to streamline the process to make it more appealing to customers.

Prediction #21: The unexpected can and will happen

Our final prediction is a simple one, something not on our list will happen, and it will shock the industry when it does.

This prediction is high confidence.

Result: Yes, the unexpected did happen, many times.