Middles in Sports Betting: How Middling Works

What is middling in sports betting? Middling is a sports betting concept where bettors take advantage of deviations in point spreads or totals. Bettors place a bet on one side, and then after a significant line movement, place a second wager on the other side. The gap between the two lines is what’s known as the middle.

In most instances, the bettor will win one bet and lose the other. The good news is that middles only have to hit occasionally for bettors to turn a long-term profit.

Hitting a middle is the sports betting equivalent of having your cake and eating it too. It’s a low-risk strategy that is conceptually easy to understand but somewhat difficult to pull off in practice.

In this guide, BettingUSA explains how bettors can incorporate middling into their arsenals of sports betting tools and examines scenarios when middling is worth considering.

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How Middling Works in Betting

The best way to illustrate how a middle works is with a simple example. Imagine the New York Giants open as -7.5 point favorites at home against the Atlanta Falcons:

• Atlanta Falcons: +7.5 -110
• NY Giants: -7.5 -110

Now, imagine one of Atlanta’s star players is ruled out during the week, and the line immediately jumps to Giants -10.5:

• Atlanta Falcons +10.5 -110
• NY Giants: -10.5 -110

The movement has created a 3-point gap between the original and current line. As a result, bettors who previously wagered $11 on the Giants at -7.5 can now place a second $11 bet on Atlanta at +10.5 with the hope of winning both wagers.

Here are the possible outcomes, assuming -110 American odds on both wagers:

• The Giants win by 11 or more points: The original ticket (Giants -7.5) cashes for $10, and the second ticket (Atlanta +10.5) loses. The bettor is down $1.
• The Giants lose or win by 7 points or fewer: The original ticket loses, but the wager on Atlanta +10.5 cashes for $10. The bettor is down $1.
• The Giants win by exactly 8,9, or 10 points: Both tickets cash, and the bettor is up $20.

What if instead of +10.5 points, the new line was only +10? In this scenario, if the Giants win by exactly 10 points, the bet on them at -7.5 still cashes for $10, but the second wager pushes for a total win of $10. A 10-point margin of victory is somewhat common, so this middle is not nearly as favorable as the first.

Direction Matters

In the previous example, the Giants became bigger favorites. What if instead the point spread shifts to -4.5? A middle still exists in this case, but only if the initial bet was on Atlanta at +7.5.

Direction is an important point to keep in mind because new bettors might inadvertently bet Giants -7.5 and Atlanta +4.5, thinking they could win both wagers. Wrong. The best-case scenario is that they would pay vigorish on the winning wager and lose the other. A disaster scenario occurs when the Giants win by exactly 5,6, or 7 points. Both tickets lose. Avoid this scenario at all costs.

The same goes for totals. Assume a bettor snags o225.5 on the Knicks-Hawks game. There’s a ton of late sharp action on the under, and the line moves to 222.5. There is no middle for over bettors.

Alternatively, if the line moves to 228.5, bettors can take the under and cash both tickets if the final score lands on 226, 227, or 228.

Remember this rule: Middling opportunities only arise when the value of the original ticket increases.   

Can Middling Be a Profitable Strategy?

Whether middling is a profitable strategy comes down to the math.

A bettor must hit the middle 4.76% of the time to break even on middles involving wagers priced at -110. This assumes that a push isn’t possible (i.e., both lines are at x.5 odds).

Here’s how it breaks down:

• The middle does not hit: The bettor wins 1 unit on one ticket and loses 1.1 units on the other. The net loss is 0.1 units.
• The middle hits: The bettor wins 1 unit on both tickets. The net profit is 2 units.

2/0.1 = 20, meaning the bettor only needs to win one middle for every 20 misses. That works out to 1/21 = 4.76%.

What if a push is possible? This adds a layer of complexity to the equation.

A push can occur when one or both sides of the middle land on a whole number, like 7 or 223. In addition to the outcomes outlined above, the bettor can also come out ahead 1 unit. This happens when one side of the middle wins (+1 unit), and the other ties (0 unit). An example would be if a bettor had the 49ers at -7 and the Cardinals at +8.5. If the final score is 28-21 in favor of the 49ers, the bettor wins one bet and pushes the other.

When a push is a possible outcome, bettors only have to win both wagers slightly less than 4.76% of the time. How much less is determined by how often one side pushes.   

Once bettors know the break-even point, they must determine whether the middle is likely to hit at a higher frequency than that figure.

Clues to that answer lie in recent historical trends.

The Importance of Key Numbers in Football (and Basketball)

Not all line movements carry the same weight, especially in football, where certain margins of victories and totals are far more common than others.

Knowing these key numbers is an integral facet of middle betting. For instance, 3 is the most common winning margin in the NFL, followed by 7, 6, and 14. Middles around these key numbers are rare, but when they do occur, bettors can rest assured that they’re getting the best of it.

A middle of -6.5 / +7.5 may not seem like a lot, but since the 2015 rule changes, 7-point wins occur nearly 10% of the time – more than enough to compensate for the 4.76% win rate bettors need to break even.

It gets better. A closing line of 7.5 has a higher probability of landing on exactly 7 than an average game. Thus, the likelihood of a 7-point win margin should be higher relative to historical trends.

Moving to over/under wagers, NFL totals like 44 and 51 are very common. However, there is a much wider distribution of totals compared to margins of victory. A one-point totals middle will hardly ever be enough to break even at -110 odds.

NBA distributions are wider than NFL, and college sports wider still. Get to know the frequencies at which winning margins and totals occur before incorporating middling as part of your strategy.

The Importance of Line Shopping

Bettors looking to add middling to their arsenal should get into the habit of shopping betting lines. NFL lines don’t vary much from book to book, but finding a half-point here and there could be the difference between a profitable middle and a slowly shrinking bankroll.

Even a slight difference in the odds can have a dramatic impact. If a bettor can find -108 odds instead of -110, the break-even point shrinks from 4.76% to 3.85%. At -105, bettors only need to win 1 out of every 41 middles to break even, a very attainable 2.44%.

Middling vs. Letting it Ride

Middling can be a profitable strategy, but it’s not necessarily the most profitable strategy. If a bettor wagers $100 on the Giants at -6.5 and the line moves to -7.5 across the board, middling would result in a high positive expectation.

So would letting it ride. There must be a good reason for a line to move across 7. Either the books grossly mispriced the opening line (rare), or someone got hurt. It will be the latter reason most often, and the bettor’s ticket has risen in value dramatically. Why even bother trying to middle when the original ticket is +EV?

Well, the main reason would be to mitigate risk. By middling, bettors reduce their liability to next to nothing and double their upside. On the flip side, holding a single ticket is an all-or-nothing proposition. The expected value is a tad higher, but the outcomes are more volatile.

Ultimately, the decision lies in the hands of the bettor, but it’s a good problem to have.

Middling FAQ